A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
